Jumbo-Cupcake
0x6b17d237e6b7f74ce8171d6dc68e07bc21c803b2
Wallet digest
Activity score
85/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
89
Open notional
$3.3K
Total PnL
$-498.31
Realised
$302.78
Win rate
58%
50 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 89- NO
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?
351 shares @ 79.5¢·now 78.5¢·exp Sep 13, 2026$275.62
$-3.49
- NO
Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?
445 shares @ 59.7¢·now 56.5¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$251.52
$-14.39
- NO
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?
567 shares @ 44.4¢·now 44.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$249.39
$-2.17
- NO
Will JPMorgan (JPM) close at USD 1 trillion or more market cap by October 31?
408 shares @ 53.0¢·now 61.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$248.57
$32.71
- NO
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?
1199 shares @ 24.1¢·now 16.5¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$197.88
$-91.35
- YES
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026?
300 shares @ 62.0¢·now 65.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$196.50
$10.50
- NO
Will JPMorgan (JPM) close at USD 1 trillion or more market cap by December 31?
223 shares @ 35.0¢·now 58.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$129.57
$51.38
- YES
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?
213 shares @ 62.2¢·now 55.5¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$118.12
$-14.32
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on July 28?
111 shares @ 83.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$111.40
$18.89
- NO
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
209 shares @ 53.0¢·now 53.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$110.74
$-0.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?$165.44Jul 29, 05:02 UTC
- TRADESELLS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 29?$49.68Jul 29, 04:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C on July 30?$7.20Jul 29, 04:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C on July 30?$7.20Jul 29, 04:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 29?$62.48Jul 29, 04:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 29?$2.25Jul 29, 04:14 UTC
- TRADESELLS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 29?$26.68Jul 29, 04:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?$16.80Jul 29, 04:02 UTC
- TRADESELLS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 29?$8.00Jul 29, 04:01 UTC
- TRADESELLS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 29?$2.57Jul 29, 04:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Aq Jol win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections?$0.01Jul 29, 03:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Aq Jol win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections?$0.00Jul 29, 03:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 29?$18.50Jul 29, 03:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 29?$23.50Jul 29, 03:46 UTC
- TRADESELLS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 29?$20.00Jul 29, 03:45 UTC
- TRADESELLS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 29?$127.00Jul 29, 03:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on July 28?$0.00Jul 29, 03:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on July 28?$0.00Jul 29, 03:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on July 28?$3.71Jul 29, 03:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on July 28?$6.32Jul 29, 03:30 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
76/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
58% win rate over 50 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
50 closed markets, 58% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $37.98
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 29, 00:00 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 05:02 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 50 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.