Ecstatic-Postbox
0x6bf633e483ed85b5a73c5a387bdffdd100772529
Wallet digest
Activity score
72/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$648.52
Total PnL
$-2.5K
Realised
$-10.03
Win rate
42%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
200 shares @ 95.7¢·now 96.8¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$193.60
$2.20
- NO
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
183 shares @ 92.7¢·now 93.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$170.76
$0.76
- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
126 shares @ 96.3¢·now 98.6¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$124.50
$2.96
- NO
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
107 shares @ 93.6¢·now 95.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$101.87
$1.87
- YES
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
203 shares @ 34.5¢·now 28.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$57.78
$-12.22
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 15?
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on June 15?
2846 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 15?
2810 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on May 21?
2607 shares @ 3.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 21, 2026$0.00
$-99.42
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on July 11?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on July 29?$10.40Jul 29, 08:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on July 29?$10.02Jul 29, 07:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on July 29?$10.47Jul 29, 07:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on July 29?$10.03Jul 29, 06:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on July 29?$25.42Jul 29, 04:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on July 29?$25.02Jul 29, 04:01 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 29, 00:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on July 28?$20.00Jul 28, 22:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$44.00Jul 28, 14:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 29?$15.00Jul 28, 12:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on July 28?$17.13Jul 28, 11:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on July 28?$10.26Jul 28, 07:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on July 28?$10.01Jul 28, 06:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on July 28?$10.24Jul 28, 06:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on July 28?$10.02Jul 28, 05:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on July 28?$10.18Jul 28, 05:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on July 28?$10.01Jul 28, 04:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 28?$26.36Jul 28, 02:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 28?$25.07Jul 28, 02:29 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 28, 00:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
27/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
42% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $29.48
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 24, 16:25 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 08:04 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.