0x6c104a31c105ab2573a42e0f178f961e4496df5c
0x6c104a31c105ab2573a42e0f178f961e4496df5c
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
145
Open notional
$123.5K
Total PnL
$2.4K
Realised
$106.60
Win rate
100%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 145- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
22200 shares @ 92.8¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$22.1K
$1.5K
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?
9637 shares @ 83.2¢·now 87.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$8.4K
$416.79
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?
8882 shares @ 69.9¢·now 71.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$6.4K
$139.80
- NO
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
6010 shares @ 89.6¢·now 96.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$5.8K
$415.16
- YES
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?
5415 shares @ 82.5¢·now 95.7¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$5.2K
$712.07
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?
4200 shares @ 77.3¢·now 98.3¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$4.1K
$881.93
- NO
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?
4179 shares @ 83.4¢·now 89.0¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$3.7K
$232.47
- NO
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
4010 shares @ 81.3¢·now 78.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$3.1K
$-112.04
- YES
Will the National Regeneration Movement (Morena) win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election?
3270 shares @ 81.3¢·now 89.3¢·exp Jun 6, 2027$2.9K
$258.15
- NO
Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?
3064 shares @ 88.5¢·now 87.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.7K
$-24.62
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYIran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30?$270.00Jul 28, 13:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?$30.99Jul 28, 04:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027?$2.40Jul 28, 03:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?$0.98Jul 28, 02:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?$8.34Jul 28, 02:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?$80.26Jul 28, 02:11 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$9.66Jul 28, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$1.95Jul 28, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?$270.00Jul 28, 00:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?$176.95Jul 28, 00:03 UTC
- REWARD$4.39Jul 28, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by August 31?$43.67Jul 27, 22:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by August 31?$40.45Jul 27, 20:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by August 31?$19.43Jul 27, 20:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?$506.00Jul 27, 20:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?$528.00Jul 27, 16:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?$690.00Jul 27, 15:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$778.00Jul 27, 13:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mark Kelly announce a Presidential run before 2027?$5.29Jul 27, 13:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?$8.11Jul 27, 13:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 1 ledger trades, copy-risk 61/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
100%
Sample
low
1 ledger trades
Top market concentration
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
$16.7K · 100% of recorded whale volume
Recorded market concentration
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $123.35
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 00:11 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 13:03 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.