Unwelcome-Thread
0x6cb19ed1e36768fd358134f2812c7dca2c510f6e
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
38
Open notional
$423.79
Total PnL
$-195.31
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 38- YES
Will $ANSEM dip to $0.08 before 2027?
50 shares @ 92.1¢·now 73.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$36.50
$-9.55
- NO
Will James Fishback win 15–20% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?
50 shares @ 91.0¢·now 68.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$34.25
$-11.25
- NO
Will James Fishback win 10–15% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?
50 shares @ 85.0¢·now 61.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$30.75
$-11.75
- YES
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 31, 2026?
50 shares @ 83.0¢·now 57.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$28.75
$-12.75
- NO
Will Clavicular visit the United Kingdom in 2026?
50 shares @ 79.0¢·now 55.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$27.75
$-11.75
- NO
Dreamcash FDV above $400M one day after launch?
30 shares @ 96.0¢·now 79.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$23.86
$-4.93
- YES
Will Darijana Filipović be the Croat Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election?
50 shares @ 59.0¢·now 41.0¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$20.50
$-9.00
- NO
Will Marie Gluesenkamp Perez earn the most votes in the WA-03 primary?
30 shares @ 85.0¢·now 67.7¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$20.31
$-5.19
- YES
Will Ana Brnabić win the next Serbia presidential election?
50 shares @ 55.0¢·now 38.5¢·exp May 1, 2027$19.25
$-8.25
- YES
Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $12.5B by December 31?
50 shares @ 57.0¢·now 35.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$17.75
$-10.75
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUS x Cuba economic deal by December 31, 2026?$19.00Jul 28, 19:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by December 31, 2026?$13.80Jul 28, 18:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $12.5B by December 31?$28.50Jul 28, 18:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 31, 2026?$41.50Jul 28, 18:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Democratic Party win the NY-23 House seat?$4.35Jul 28, 18:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democratic Party win the NY-23 House seat?$4.80Jul 28, 17:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democratic Party win the NY-21 House seat?$6.60Jul 28, 17:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Dovha Balka by September 30?$19.50Jul 28, 17:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rebeca Grynspan be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?$2.55Jul 28, 17:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rebeca Grynspan be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?$2.64Jul 28, 17:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Macky Sall be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?$32.35Jul 28, 17:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Marie Gluesenkamp Perez earn the most votes in the WA-03 primary?$25.50Jul 28, 17:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Houthis successfully target shipping on August 5, 2026?$7.49Jul 28, 17:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Houthis successfully target shipping on August 5, 2026?$7.66Jul 28, 17:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Macky Sall be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?$36.40Jul 28, 17:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Dovha Balka by September 30?$21.00Jul 28, 17:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Squid launch a token by March 31, 2027?$4.23Jul 28, 17:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Safeguarding Swiss neutrality (neutrality initiative) initiative be approved in Switzerland’s September 27, 2026 popular vote?$46.92Jul 28, 17:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Safeguarding Swiss neutrality (neutrality initiative) initiative be approved in Switzerland’s September 27, 2026 popular vote?$47.05Jul 28, 17:08 UTC
- TRADESELLGRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch?$28.91Jul 28, 17:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $18.80
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 13:56 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 19:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.