Will Rebeca Grynspan be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?
Probability
25¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+4.0pp
24h Vol
$814.99
Liquidity
$18.7K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5998.7h
- 01:16SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5999h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 01:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 25¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 25¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.5pp
to 24¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -22.5pp
to 22¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.5pp
to 22¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.0pp
to 21¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.0pp
to 22¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -21.0pp
to 22¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -21.0pp
to 22¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -21.0pp
to 22¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.5pp
to 22¢
- 07:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.0pp
to 21¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
A selection process is currently being held to choose the next Secretary-General of the United Nations, with the current term set to end on 31 December 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Secretary-General of the United Nations following the 2026 United Nations Secretary-General selection. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Secretary-General of the United Nations following the 2026 United Nations Secretary-General selection. A recommendation by the United Nations Security Council alone will not be sufficient for resolution. Any interim or caretaker Secretary-General will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Secretary-General is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).