Irritating-Wolf-Steward
0x6cbcb818fec52eb42bd8a6d239718a7b87bd1b63
Wallet digest
Activity score
77/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$126.42
Total PnL
$-1.3K
Realised
$5.45
Win rate
64%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
40 shares @ 27.5¢·now 85.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$34.50
$23.39
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
187 shares @ 18.4¢·now 16.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$30.82
$-3.55
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
68 shares @ 40.2¢·now 40.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$27.67
$0.18
- NO
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
17 shares @ 64.0¢·now 63.5¢·exp May 30, 2027$10.80
$-0.09
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
90 shares @ 12.7¢·now 9.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$8.57
$-2.86
- NO
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
7 shares @ 15.0¢·now 56.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.81
$2.79
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
4 shares @ 76.0¢·now 83.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.00
$0.27
- NO
Iran full airspace closure by August 15?
3 shares @ 86.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$2.96
$0.29
- YES
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
4 shares @ 42.0¢·now 42.5¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$1.74
$0.02
- NO
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?
10 shares @ 61.5¢·now 11.5¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$1.09
$-4.76
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYNational Bank Open: Nuno Borges vs Luciano Darderi$1.21Aug 8, 13:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYSet Handicap: Borges (-1.5) vs Darderi (+1.5)$1.21Aug 8, 12:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 150m and 160m?$1.06Aug 7, 18:21 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?$2.10Aug 5, 22:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYNational Bank Open: Alex Michelsen vs Francisco Cerundolo$1.33Aug 5, 20:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SK Brann win on 2026-08-05?$2.05Aug 5, 16:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$1.40Aug 5, 02:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYCanadian Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Botic van de Zandschulp$1.48Aug 4, 17:52 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$1.59Aug 4, 16:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYCanadian Open: Sebastian Baez vs Mattia Bellucci$1.60Aug 4, 14:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYCall of Duty: KOI vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Esports World Cup Group A$1.30Aug 4, 06:26 UTC
- REDEEMLexington: Henry Searle vs Lloyd Harris$3.31Aug 4, 01:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$1.06Aug 3, 23:56 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$1.24Aug 3, 18:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$5.20Aug 3, 18:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYLexington: Henry Searle vs Lloyd Harris$1.86Aug 3, 16:04 UTC
- REDEEMU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$3.23Aug 3, 02:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$1.20Aug 2, 22:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$2.65Aug 2, 21:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$1.59Aug 2, 20:39 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
38/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
64% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $3.33
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 31, 20:38 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 8, 13:56 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.