Fixed-Seminar
0x6cd4b712bb472d388072887fa97743e1972b8853
Wallet digest
Activity score
64/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
52
Open notional
$10.70
Total PnL
$-495.37
Realised
$-7.95
Win rate
57%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 52- YES
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
20 shares @ 75.0¢·now 44.0¢·exp Jan 3, 2027$8.80
$-6.20
- YES
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
20 shares @ 19.5¢·now 9.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.90
$-2.00
- YES
Will Trump pardon Diddy by October 31?
600 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-21.00
- YES
Will Justin Bieber be the top Spotify artist for 2025?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
200 shares @ 23.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-46.00
- YES
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX?
200 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?
200 shares @ 4.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 29, 2025$0.00
$-8.60
- NO
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?
150 shares @ 2.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-4.29
- YES
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?
100 shares @ 19.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2025$0.00
$-19.00
- YES
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?
100 shares @ 62.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 22, 2026$0.00
$-62.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 20:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$6.77Jul 19, 21:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 19, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 18, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 17, 00:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the fight be won by submission?$0.95Jul 11, 21:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYFight to Go the Distance?$2.18Jul 11, 21:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the fight be won by submission?$1.15Jul 11, 21:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYUFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)$14.50Jul 11, 21:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$2.55Jul 7, 19:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYMitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?$1.33Jul 7, 02:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYMitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?$2.19Jul 7, 02:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYMitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?$9.00Jul 7, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYMitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?$2.48Jul 7, 00:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10?$9.65Jul 1, 00:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10?$30.18Jul 1, 00:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$2.30Jun 28, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10?$13.13Jun 27, 03:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10?$10.87Jun 27, 01:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$2.70Jun 26, 23:08 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
30/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
57% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 59/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $9.78
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 7, 22:31 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 20:06 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.