Grounded-Twist
0x6cf37cbbc607248179ef2c4ad29fd668d6faae71
Wallet digest
Activity score
89/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$76.79
Total PnL
$-94.67
Realised
$14.96
Win rate
100%
25 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Charles Gambaro be the Republican nominee for FL-06?
599 shares @ 0.1¢·now 11.9¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$71.25
$70.65
- YES
Will Caleb Wilson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft?
653 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.2¢·exp Jun 25, 2026$1.30
$0.65
- YES
Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027?
483 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.72
$0.24
- YES
Will Wilton Simpson be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
1001 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$0.50
$-0.50
- YES
Will Matt Gaetz be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$0.50
$-0.50
- YES
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.50
$-0.50
- YES
Will Jimmy Patronis be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$0.50
$-0.50
- YES
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.50
$-0.50
- YES
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Japan?
970 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.49
$-0.49
- YES
Will Javier Milei be the next leader out before 2027?
386 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.19
$-0.19
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on June 3?$0.01Jun 1, 19:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on June 3?$0.13Jun 1, 18:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on June 3?$0.11Jun 1, 18:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on June 3?$0.10Jun 1, 18:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on June 3?$0.11Jun 1, 18:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on June 3?$0.12Jun 1, 18:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on June 3?$0.11Jun 1, 18:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on June 3?$0.12Jun 1, 18:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on June 3?$0.19Jun 1, 18:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on June 2?$1.00Jun 1, 17:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on June 2?$1.00Jun 1, 09:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE?$1.00Jun 1, 08:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE?$1.00May 31, 14:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.00May 31, 14:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ryan Lin be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft?$0.10May 31, 07:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Drake have exactly 6 songs in the Billboard top 10?$0.01May 27, 04:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 28?$0.99May 26, 18:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 28?$0.01May 26, 18:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $70 in May?$0.00May 26, 17:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $70 in May?$0.03May 26, 16:47 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
43/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 25 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
25 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.24
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 25, 20:11 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 1, 19:02 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 25 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.