Will Charles Gambaro be the Republican nominee for FL-06?
Probability
9¢
1h
-0.1pp
24h
+0.9pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$16.4K
Probability (last 7 days)
-4.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 2743h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $16.4k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Loading prose summary — see the structured breakdown above.
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 2743.4h
- 16:38SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 2743h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.4pp
to 8¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 8¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 8¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 8¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.7pp
to 8¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.2pp
to 8¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.4pp
to 8¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 8¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.4pp
to 8¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 8¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Aug 18, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-06 congressional district seat in thAmbiguous wordingextracted · lowrnc.org
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.