Complex-Advertisement
0x6e365d3b928c228cfaae61ebf0624b8f28a2dbb5
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
50
Open notional
$1.86
Total PnL
$-476.96
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 50- YES
Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?
4 shares @ 24.0¢·now 37.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$1.54
$0.54
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
16 shares @ 31.0¢·now 1.9¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.31
$-4.69
- YES
Netanyahu out by March 31?
3403 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-120.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 15?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 15, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Will Trump say "Jesse" or "Jackson" during the Black History Month reception?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the DHS shutdown end between February 20-23, 2026?
585 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- NO
Will the DHS shutdown last 7 days or more?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 14, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February?
333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?
286 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2024$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 15?
281 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 15, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?$26.32Mar 22, 09:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYNetanyahu out by March 31?$100.00Mar 17, 19:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?$2.00Mar 17, 18:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$5.00Mar 17, 18:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump visit China by May 31?$10.00Mar 17, 18:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYNetanyahu out by March 31?$20.00Mar 17, 18:04 UTC
- REDEEMKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?$156.25Mar 8, 16:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?$10.00Mar 2, 08:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill US or Israel strike Iran on March 4, 2026?$5.00Mar 1, 09:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill US or Israel strike Iran on March 3, 2026?$5.00Mar 1, 09:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill US or Israel strike Iran on March 2, 2026?$5.00Mar 1, 09:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "No No No" during the 2026 State of the Union address?$43.48Feb 25, 11:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Hottest" during the 2026 State of the Union address?$10.00Feb 24, 18:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Israel" or "Gaza" during the 2026 State of the Union address?$5.00Feb 24, 18:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Six Seven" during the 2026 State of the Union address?$5.00Feb 24, 18:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "No No No" during the 2026 State of the Union address?$10.00Feb 24, 18:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "IQ" during the 2026 State of the Union address?$10.00Feb 24, 18:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Hockey" during the 2026 State of the Union address?$10.00Feb 24, 18:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "America" or "American" 50+ times during the 2026 State of the Union address?$10.00Feb 24, 18:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "America" or "American" 25+ times during the 2026 State of the Union address?$10.00Feb 24, 18:08 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $11.42
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 16, 07:28 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 22, 09:47 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".