Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?
Probability
46¢
1h
-0.5pp
24h
+8.5pp
24h Vol
$29.02
Liquidity
$2.1K
Probability (last 7 days)
+1.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 4 factors- 1
Up 9pp over 24h
Now 46¢; -0.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $2.1k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
- 4
Past expiry — awaiting resolution
Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 13:37SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 13:37PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 46¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 45¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 46¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 45¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 46¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 45¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 43¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 43¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 43¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 43¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 43¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 43¢
- 19:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 42¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 42¢
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 42¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 46¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.5pp
to 43¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 43¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 43¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 43¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 42¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Anthropic Claude model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered. The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Feb 28, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).