Disguised-Deviation
0x6eede866d1170f6976bf83075773f906088bee5c
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
49
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-292.14
Realised
$-75.61
Win rate
0%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 49- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on January 24?
229 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 24, 2026$0.00
$-4.81
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C or higher on March 2?
227 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 2, 2026$0.00
$-2.50
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 31?
227 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Trump meet with Mette Frederiksen in February 2026?
223 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-2.23
- NO
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on January 26?
221 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 26, 2026$0.00
$-2.21
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 24?
220 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026$0.00
$-1.76
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?
215 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$0.00
$-2.58
- YES
Will Solana reach $80 August 3-9?
201 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.81
- YES
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on January 28?
188 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on January 28?
180 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.62
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $0.80 and $0.90 on August 15?$1.92Aug 14, 16:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Solana reach $80 August 3-9?$1.94Aug 9, 13:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of XRP be above $1.10 on August 7?$236.11Aug 7, 16:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be above $1.10 on August 7?$232.80Aug 6, 16:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on July 8?$1.70Jul 7, 18:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 4?$186.67Jul 4, 16:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 4?$185.55Jul 3, 19:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Solana be above $90 on June 2?$206.65Jun 2, 18:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be above $90 on June 2?$0.65Jun 1, 23:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be above $90 on June 2?$204.97Jun 1, 23:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 31?$5.34May 30, 19:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 30?$1.94May 29, 22:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Solana be above $90 on May 26?$223.81May 26, 18:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be above $90 on May 26?$219.11May 25, 19:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 24?$1.88May 24, 00:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 20?$1.73May 19, 22:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 17?$181.67May 17, 20:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 17?$179.49May 16, 23:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 17?$34.13May 16, 23:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on April 28?$204.12May 10, 21:43 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
28/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
30 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 30
- Avg trade size
- $75.62
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 8, 00:50 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 14, 16:35 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.