Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 31?
Probability
0¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.7pp
24h Vol
$86.3K
Liquidity
$254.7K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.
Resolution is awaiting UMA confirmation. Price may move sharply when it settles.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Market expires May 31, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
-50.9pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Market expires May 31, 2026 — dispute window active.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 12:49SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 16:00Scheduled resolutionHIGH
Expiry passed 21h ago; awaiting UMA confirmation
Price movement
-0.7pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.
Biggest hourly move: -56.0pp at May 28, 05:00 UTC (to 7¢).
Show top 8 of 73 hourly moves
- May 29, 03:00 UTC · -49.5pp → 5¢
- May 29, 02:00 UTC · -53.0pp → 8¢
- May 29, 01:00 UTC · -53.5pp → 8¢
- May 28, 23:00 UTC · -55.0pp → 7¢
- May 28, 12:00 UTC · -49.0pp → 7¢
- May 28, 08:00 UTC · -47.0pp → 12¢
- May 28, 06:00 UTC · -53.5pp → 8¢
- May 28, 05:00 UTC · -56.0pp → 7¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
ethereumReason
Question text contains the high-signal keyword "ethereum" — matched the Crypto rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 31?"?
As of Mon, 01 Jun 2026 12:49:16 GMT, YES is priced at 0% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.7pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -50.9pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 31, 2026 (2026-05-31T16:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from UMA optimistic oracle (proposed).
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from UMA optimistic oracle (proposed). Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$86.3K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $118.3K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $254.7K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.