Grouchy-Sociology
0x6f0b59280751182a0a4f26957a1228ef14c62116
Wallet digest
Activity score
63/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
124
Open notional
$12.70
Total PnL
$-905.55
Realised
$-19.37
Win rate
53%
17 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 124- YES
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
13 shares @ 64.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$12.70
$4.57
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 9?
4062 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 9, 2026$0.00
$-4.06
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on April 9?
1523 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 9, 2026$0.00
$-6.09
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 69°F or below on April 8?
1058 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 8, 2026$0.00
$-2.64
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 70-71°F on April 7?
810 shares @ 7.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026$0.00
$-63.48
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 82°F or higher on April 9?
796 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 9, 2026$0.00
$-6.75
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 6?
761 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 6, 2026$0.00
$-8.38
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on April 8?
588 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 8, 2026$0.00
$-0.59
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C or higher on April 7?
523 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026$0.00
$-8.89
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on April 9?
514 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 9, 2026$0.00
$-8.23
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?$2.04Apr 30, 06:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 28?$3.26Apr 30, 06:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on April 15?$5.67Apr 30, 06:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Dallas be 73°F or below on April 29?$6.30Apr 30, 06:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chicago be 74°F or higher on April 15?$7.67Apr 30, 06:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on April 29?$0.42Apr 28, 11:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Dallas be 73°F or below on April 29?$0.69Apr 28, 10:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 29?$0.69Apr 28, 10:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 29?$0.12Apr 28, 09:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 29?$0.14Apr 28, 09:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 29?$0.59Apr 28, 09:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 29?$0.20Apr 28, 09:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on April 29?$0.20Apr 28, 08:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on April 28?$0.01Apr 28, 07:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on April 28?$0.03Apr 28, 07:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on April 28?$0.04Apr 28, 07:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on April 28?$0.00Apr 28, 07:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on April 28?$0.03Apr 28, 07:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on April 28?$0.01Apr 28, 07:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on April 28?$0.03Apr 28, 07:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
33/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
53% win rate over 17 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.
17 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $0.45
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 18, 06:12 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 30, 06:28 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 17 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.