Phony-Partnership
0x6f1e944ad80c98d7035c9418ad6a49e7ef6fccb0
Wallet digest
Activity score
73/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
25
Open notional
$220.70
Total PnL
$-9.1K
Realised
$-63.28
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 25- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
147133 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$220.70
$-755.82
- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
162068 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-1.1K
- YES
Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday?
121584 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 16, 2026$0.00
$-461.17
- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?
114334 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-571.67
- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
34929 shares @ 3.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-1.1K
- NO
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
26946 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-275.80
- YES
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
21293 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-191.64
- NO
Will the government shutdown last 2 days or more?
15699 shares @ 4.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-750.12
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET
7064 shares @ 12.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$0.00
$-901.56
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET
3410 shares @ 28.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$0.00
$-969.66
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET$80.59Jul 5, 23:12 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET$0.00Jul 5, 23:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET$26.22Jul 5, 23:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET$26.24Jul 5, 23:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET$5.28Jul 5, 23:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET$5.26Jul 5, 23:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET$26.33Jul 5, 23:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$335.90Jul 5, 23:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$689.20Jul 4, 13:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$1.04Jun 2, 20:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$198.20Jun 2, 20:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?$14.41May 24, 00:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?$1.2KMay 11, 20:25 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET$0.00Apr 23, 15:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?$411.78Apr 23, 15:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET$100.00Apr 23, 15:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?$50.00Apr 23, 15:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?$600.00Apr 23, 15:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?$571.67Mar 18, 12:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET$188.42Mar 12, 20:51 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $254.05
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 10, 00:37 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 5, 23:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.