Wallet digest

active

Activity score

87/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$2.1K

Total PnL

$-23.5K

Realised

$4.7K

Win rate

81%

31 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

YES
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December?
8002 shares @ 12.9¢·now 8.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026
$680.14
$-351.53
YES
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December?
2270 shares @ 17.6¢·now 19.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026
$431.24
$31.40
YES
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in July?
3060 shares @ 22.4¢·now 10.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026
$321.32
$-364.02
YES
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in July?
1053 shares @ 43.8¢·now 25.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026
$263.25
$-198.01
YES
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?
695 shares @ 26.6¢·now 22.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026
$159.15
$-25.37
YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?
1200 shares @ 14.7¢·now 12.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026
$150.00
$-26.00
YES
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in July?
1701 shares @ 13.0¢·now 3.8¢·exp Aug 1, 2026
$63.79
$-157.59
YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?
1800 shares @ 12.3¢·now 3.4¢·exp Aug 1, 2026
$60.30
$-161.60
YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in July?
2000 shares @ 11.5¢·now 0.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026
$11.00
$-220.00
YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in July?
2200 shares @ 4.3¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 1, 2026
$3.30
$-91.19

Recent activity

TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 28?$0.45Jul 28, 17:21 UTC
TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 28?$0.12Jul 28, 17:20 UTC
TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 28?$0.11Jul 28, 17:20 UTC
TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in July?$27.20Jul 28, 17:09 UTC
TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 28?$2.07Jul 28, 17:08 UTC
TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 28?$0.93Jul 28, 17:08 UTC
TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on July 28?$6.20Jul 28, 17:07 UTC
TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on July 28?$31.02Jul 28, 17:07 UTC
TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on July 28?$50.97Jul 28, 16:31 UTC
TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 28?$18.59Jul 28, 16:30 UTC
TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 28?$1.70Jul 28, 14:21 UTC
TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 28?$3.85Jul 28, 14:20 UTC
TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in July?$208.68Jul 28, 04:28 UTC
MAKER_REBATE$12.25Jul 28, 00:45 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$1.29Jul 28, 00:10 UTC
REWARD$1.38Jul 28, 00:00 UTC
TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 28?$600.00Jul 27, 23:00 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down on July 27?$0.29Jul 27, 17:10 UTC
TRADESELLSPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 27?$0.01Jul 27, 15:36 UTC
TRADESELLSPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 27?$5.20Jul 27, 15:36 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

70/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

PnL is mostly mark-to-market

Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.

Late-entry profile

Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

81% win rate over 31 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

31 closed markets, 81% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity72 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry6 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk42 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 46
Avg trade size: $51.21
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 27, 14:15 UTC
Last active: Jul 28, 17:21 UTC
Win rate sample: 31 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

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updated 18:03:33 UTC·src:Polymarket Data