Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December?
Probability
19¢
1h
-2.5pp
24h
-1.0pp
24h Vol
$157.20
Liquidity
$8.9K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Down 1pp over 24h
Now 19¢; -2.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Wide spread — 6.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5964.0h
Price movement
-0.5pp over the last 24h, now 19¢.
Biggest hourly move: -5.5pp at 20:00 (to 18¢).
Show top 8 of 25 hourly moves
- 08:00 · -4.5pp → 18¢
- 06:00 · -4.5pp → 18¢
- 03:00 · -5.5pp → 18¢
- 23:00 · -5.5pp → 19¢
- 20:00 · -5.5pp → 18¢
- 18:00 · -5.5pp → 19¢
- 12:00 · -5.0pp → 17¢
- 1d ago · -5.0pp → 19¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered. Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered. All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (6.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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