Frail-Newspaper
0x6f2ce0b184a117838939aa457fa3043955d6f5ad
Wallet digest
Activity score
31/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
100
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-166.27
Realised
$2.60
Win rate
2%
95 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 100- NO
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 82°F or higher on May 28?
550 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 28, 2026$0.00
$-11.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on May 27?
50 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 27, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27?
47 shares @ 9.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 27, 2026$0.00
$-4.59
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET
44 shares @ 16.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 28, 2026$0.00
$-7.10
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on May 27?
26 shares @ 5.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 27, 2026$0.00
$-1.52
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 26?
25 shares @ 8.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET
20 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 29, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 28?
20 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 30?
14 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.14
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 27?
13 shares @ 28.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 27, 2026$0.00
$-3.66
Recent activity
- REDEEMUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?$2.94Jun 21, 13:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill Abelardo de la Espriella place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$2.50Jun 4, 07:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET$1.07May 29, 05:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May 28?$1.35May 29, 04:10 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12PM ET$1.92May 28, 17:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET$1.04May 28, 15:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12PM ET$1.03May 28, 15:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET$1.02May 28, 15:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET$1.07May 28, 15:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET$1.06May 28, 15:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET$1.06May 28, 15:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET$1.26May 28, 15:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET$1.05May 28, 15:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET$1.98May 28, 15:31 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET$3.64May 28, 15:30 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET$7.83May 28, 15:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET$1.01May 28, 15:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET$2.80May 28, 15:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET$1.03May 28, 15:25 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET$3.92May 28, 15:25 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
60/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
2% win rate over 95 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 23/100.
95 closed markets, 2% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $1.31
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 28, 14:55 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 21, 13:38 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 95 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.