Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Probability
50¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+5.5pp
24h Vol
$78.28
Liquidity
$25.6K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 855.4h
- 08:34SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 855h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 23.5pp
to 50¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 23.0pp
to 50¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 23.5pp
to 50¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 25.0pp
to 53¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.0pp
to 46¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.5pp
to 50¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 24.5pp
to 55¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 20.5pp
to 48¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 22.0pp
to 50¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 22.5pp
to 50¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 22.5pp
to 52¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.0pp
to 50¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.0pp
to 53¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 49¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 45¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (7.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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