Sociable-Quartet
0x702226b14b65b1c8d05ff51759e095f09932f64e
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$23.2K
Total PnL
$-3.0K
Realised
$-2.2K
Win rate
44%
134 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
967 shares @ 48.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$966.89
$493.93
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
801 shares @ 61.5¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$732.62
$240.48
- NO
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
831 shares @ 68.6¢·now 76.1¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$632.69
$62.61
- NO
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
556 shares @ 95.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$555.61
$24.83
- NO
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
714 shares @ 85.2¢·now 73.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$521.31
$-86.45
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
495 shares @ 76.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$494.87
$116.46
- NO
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
469 shares @ 54.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$468.99
$213.02
- YES
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
425 shares @ 67.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$425.11
$139.68
- YES
Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?
640 shares @ 28.7¢·now 65.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$416.04
$232.59
- NO
Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record?
401 shares @ 91.3¢·now 98.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$395.08
$29.10
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.53Jul 28, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.53Jul 27, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.53Jul 26, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.53Jul 25, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.53Jul 24, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.53Jul 23, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.53Jul 22, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.53Jul 21, 20:08 UTC
- YIELD$0.53Jul 21, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.53Jul 19, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.53Jul 18, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.53Jul 17, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.53Jul 16, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.53Jul 15, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.53Jul 14, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.53Jul 13, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.53Jul 12, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.53Jul 11, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.53Jul 10, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.53Jul 9, 00:21 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
58/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
44% win rate over 134 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
134 closed markets, 44% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 9, 13:22 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 00:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 134 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.