Sparse-Ethyl
0x7034fc735cb637b265e001a3a7fcbbed7c4d9ede
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
34
Open notional
$2.4K
Total PnL
$-29.60
Realised
$7.47
Win rate
100%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 34- NO
Will the final be FRA vs ARG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
296 shares @ 68.0¢·now 71.5¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$211.84
$10.37
- NO
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
252 shares @ 80.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$207.55
$6.29
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?
263 shares @ 76.0¢·now 77.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$202.62
$2.63
- NO
Will the final be FRA vs ENG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
305 shares @ 66.0¢·now 65.5¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$199.99
$-1.53
- NO
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
325 shares @ 61.0¢·now 61.2¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$199.01
$0.49
- NO
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
269 shares @ 74.0¢·now 73.7¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$197.85
$-0.94
- NO
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
421 shares @ 48.0¢·now 45.5¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$191.58
$-10.53
- YES
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
426 shares @ 47.0¢·now 44.5¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$189.36
$-10.64
- YES
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
541 shares @ 37.0¢·now 28.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$154.00
$-46.00
- NO
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?
148 shares @ 86.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$132.78
$5.25
Recent activity
- TRADESELLIran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?$7.73Jul 12, 20:03 UTC
- TRADESELLMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?$10.66Jul 12, 19:56 UTC
- TRADESELLMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?$10.61Jul 12, 19:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS reissues Iran oil sanction relief by July 31?$10.07Jul 12, 19:52 UTC
- TRADESELLIran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?$3.00Jul 12, 19:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?$1.14Jul 12, 18:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?$8.83Jul 12, 18:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on July 13?$10.15Jul 12, 18:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?$0.44Jul 12, 18:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?$0.03Jul 12, 18:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?$7.03Jul 12, 18:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?$1.44Jul 12, 18:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?$5.42Jul 12, 18:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Dobropillia by December 31?$1.38Jul 12, 18:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Dobropillia by December 31?$4.16Jul 12, 18:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?$2.32Jul 12, 17:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Dobropillia by December 31?$2.56Jul 12, 17:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?$4.58Jul 12, 17:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?$7.56Jul 12, 17:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?$9.99Jul 12, 17:53 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $14.87
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 12, 12:17 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 12, 20:03 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.