0x703b7bb4bf1e2cb40733c975cddbdbd3f2272320
0x703b7bb4bf1e2cb40733c975cddbdbd3f2272320
Wallet digest
Activity score
95/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
32
Open notional
$107.75
Total PnL
$7.74
Realised
$12.23
Win rate
67%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 32- YES
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
3217 shares @ 1.6¢·now 1.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$43.42
$-6.57
- YES
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1569 shares @ 1.4¢·now 1.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$21.18
$-0.81
- YES
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
39 shares @ 25.6¢·now 22.9¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$8.97
$-1.03
- YES
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026?
63 shares @ 1.6¢·now 7.1¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$4.46
$3.46
- NO
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July?
8 shares @ 3.1¢·now 45.2¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$3.65
$3.40
- NO
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in July?
7 shares @ 15.0¢·now 43.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.90
$1.90
- YES
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
22 shares @ 4.5¢·now 10.2¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$2.26
$1.26
- YES
Will Kanye West and Bianca Censori separate in 2026?
14 shares @ 7.3¢·now 12.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.65
$0.65
- YES
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
18 shares @ 10.9¢·now 8.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.55
$-0.45
- YES
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
11 shares @ 9.0¢·now 12.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.39
$0.39
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Jul 24, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 23, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 22, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 20:08 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 00:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.00Jul 20, 08:05 UTC
- REDEEMWorld Cup: Unbeaten Champion?$0.00Jul 20, 08:04 UTC
- REDEEMWorld Cup: Goalkeeper to Score?$0.00Jul 20, 08:04 UTC
- REDEEMExact Score: France 2 - 1 England?$0.00Jul 20, 08:04 UTC
- REDEEMExact Score: France 2 - 0 England?$0.00Jul 20, 08:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.00Jul 20, 08:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill N'Golo Kanté score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.00Jul 20, 08:04 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 19, 00:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: France 2 - 1 England?$5.25Jul 18, 14:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: France 2 - 0 England?$5.26Jul 18, 14:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$20.41Jul 18, 14:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 18, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 17, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 16, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$15.67Jul 15, 21:06 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
15/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
26 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 58/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 26
- Avg trade size
- $8.77
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 12, 10:16 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 24, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.