Long-Term-Fog
0x70491c7530e4e92a206258230048402ec7023dea
Wallet digest
Activity score
91/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
12
Open notional
$431.99
Total PnL
$6.14
Realised
$6.30
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- YES
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?
124 shares @ 93.3¢·now 94.0¢·exp Sep 6, 2026$116.73
$0.90
- YES
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
98 shares @ 85.3¢·now 86.5¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$84.57
$1.15
- NO
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
91 shares @ 82.3¢·now 81.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$73.98
$-0.76
- NO
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
60 shares @ 81.0¢·now 79.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$47.70
$-0.90
- NO
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?
50 shares @ 93.1¢·now 93.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$46.52
$-0.03
- NO
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
25 shares @ 97.6¢·now 98.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$24.49
$0.10
- NO
Will Germany be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?
10 shares @ 95.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$9.05
$-0.45
- NO
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1?
9 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$9.00
$0.00
- NO
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?
10 shares @ 58.0¢·now 55.5¢·exp Sep 6, 2026$5.55
$-0.25
- NO
Netanyahu out by June 30?
5 shares @ 98.3¢·now 98.8¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$4.94
$0.02
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1?$9.00Jun 14, 13:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill MrBeast hit 129 billion views by June 30?$0.20Jun 13, 16:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?$14.82Jun 11, 13:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?$1.56Jun 11, 13:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?$11.58Jun 11, 09:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?$1.04Jun 11, 04:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?$15.50Jun 11, 04:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?$23.50Jun 11, 04:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?$1.56Jun 10, 19:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast hit 129 billion views by June 30?$0.20Jun 10, 18:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jesus Christ return before 2027?$19.58Jun 10, 02:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?$1.20Jun 10, 02:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYNord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?$33.05Jun 10, 01:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYNord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?$13.49Jun 10, 00:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?$5.46Jun 9, 22:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?$8.00Jun 9, 20:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?$9.52Jun 9, 17:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Germany be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?$9.51Jun 9, 16:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYNetanyahu out by June 30?$4.92Jun 9, 16:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$4.74Jun 9, 16:44 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $21.19
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 31, 10:04 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 14, 13:53 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.