Quizzical-Ocelot
0x708a29197b7205945091d3e8d9260d5ad6c968b9
Wallet digest
Activity score
74/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
47
Open notional
$345.32
Total PnL
$-1.6K
Realised
$-100.86
Win rate
47%
17 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 47- OVER
New England Revolution vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 4.5
627 shares @ 11.0¢·now 40.5¢·exp Mar 7, 2026$253.94
$184.97
- YES
Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?
268 shares @ 40.0¢·now 12.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$33.50
$-73.70
- NO
Will Will Boyd win the 2026 Alabama Governor Democratic primary election?
26 shares @ 91.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$26.00
$2.34
- NO
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
36 shares @ 70.0¢·now 58.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$21.06
$-4.14
- NO
Will Nancy Dahlstrom win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
8 shares @ 78.0¢·now 99.2¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$7.93
$1.69
- YES
Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 5?
35 shares @ 16.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$1.94
$-3.66
- NO
Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch?
1 shares @ 30.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.95
$0.66
- YES
Will the US strike Iran next?
887 shares @ 32.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-283.84
- YES
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 5 be between 2,100,000 and 2,300,000?
838 shares @ 37.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 5, 2026$0.00
$-310.06
- YES
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.5 and 40.9 on February 20, 2026?
747 shares @ 38.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 21, 2026$0.00
$-283.86
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?$10.92Apr 12, 01:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?$8.06Apr 12, 01:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYKHL: Shanghai Dragons vs. HC Sochi$32.98Apr 11, 00:34 UTC
- TRADESELLAnother 7.0 or above earthquake by April 15, 2026?$32.83Apr 9, 11:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYAnother 7.0 or above earthquake by April 15, 2026?$33.81Apr 7, 11:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia occur by April 15, 2026?$7.74Mar 30, 17:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia occur by April 15, 2026?$26.28Mar 30, 17:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia occur by April 15, 2026?$27.64Mar 30, 00:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia occur by April 15, 2026?$8.27Mar 30, 00:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026?$3.95Mar 25, 19:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026?$28.44Mar 25, 19:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill Frankenstein win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?$2.00Mar 17, 03:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026?$33.21Mar 17, 00:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Small Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by March 31, 2026?$34.58Mar 16, 02:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Small Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by March 31, 2026?$23.94Mar 14, 06:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYNew England Revolution vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 4.5$68.97Mar 13, 01:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in March?$92.30Mar 10, 12:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in March?$117.86Mar 6, 07:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?$136.40Mar 6, 06:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast say "Challenge" during his next YouTube video?$87.40Mar 6, 05:52 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
34/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
47% win rate over 17 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 62/100.
17 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $48.81
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 12, 13:29 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 12, 01:42 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 17 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.