Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026?
Probability
76¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-3.0pp
24h Vol
$152.99
Liquidity
$2.8K
Probability (last 7 days)
+1.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Down 3pp over 24h
Now 76¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Wide spread — 10.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 14:35PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 76¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 80¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 80¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 80¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 80¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 80¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 80¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 80¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 81¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 81¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 80¢
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 79¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 79¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 79¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 79¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 79¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 79¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 79¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 79¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 79¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 78¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 82¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 82¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 82¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 82¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 82¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Variational officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Variational (https://x.com/variational_io), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- —
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (10.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).