Favorite-Fallacy
0x70a2936bf3b28a5f769642f5e5409fd5c2b60d5c
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
15
Open notional
$68.52
Total PnL
$-74.01
Realised
$-0.03
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- UNDER
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 5.5
32 shares @ 93.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp May 17, 2026$29.84
$-0.16
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?
15 shares @ 65.4¢·now 79.5¢·exp May 15, 2026$12.15
$2.15
- YES
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?
14 shares @ 37.0¢·now 80.2¢·exp May 15, 2026$10.83
$5.83
- YES
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?
10 shares @ 52.0¢·now 80.7¢·exp May 15, 2026$7.76
$2.76
- UNDER
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 4.5
7 shares @ 84.0¢·now 83.5¢·exp May 17, 2026$5.96
$-0.04
- YES
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17?
5 shares @ 40.0¢·now 39.5¢·exp May 17, 2026$1.98
$-0.02
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?
73 shares @ 26.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$0.00
$-19.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?
65 shares @ 28.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 5, 2026$0.00
$-18.20
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?
57 shares @ 34.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 8, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?
55 shares @ 17.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 8, 2026$0.00
$-9.30
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?$10.17May 15, 11:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYAston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 5.5$30.06May 15, 11:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYAston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 4.5$6.03May 15, 11:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17?$2.04May 15, 11:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping?$7.14May 15, 10:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping?$11.36May 15, 10:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping?$2.06May 14, 17:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?$2.05May 14, 17:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping?$6.04May 14, 17:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?$5.10May 14, 17:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?$5.11May 14, 17:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?$3.08May 14, 17:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping?$10.05May 14, 17:06 UTC
- REDEEMCA Osasuna vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 4.5$4.65May 12, 23:37 UTC
- REDEEMReal Betis Balompié vs. Elche CF: O/U 4.5$3.66May 12, 22:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?$5.21May 12, 14:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYCA Osasuna vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 4.5$4.02May 12, 09:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYReal Betis Balompié vs. Elche CF: O/U 4.5$3.02May 12, 09:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYRC Celta de Vigo vs. Levante UD: O/U 4.5$4.02May 12, 09:17 UTC
- REDEEMRayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Girona FC: O/U 4.5$5.62May 12, 01:04 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $7.90
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 6, 19:03 UTC
- Last active
- May 15, 11:25 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".