Affectionate-Sorrow
0x7150a612ded4a424cc6e45bf1fa9854d9bc2eaad
Wallet digest
Activity score
74/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
16
Open notional
$25.00
Total PnL
$-2.29
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- NO
US/Israel strike Yemen by March 31?
5 shares @ 76.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$4.88
$1.16
- YES
Will Powell say "Tariff" 13+ times during December press conference?
3 shares @ 40.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 10, 2025$2.60
$1.56
- NO
Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?
3 shares @ 39.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2025$2.56
$1.56
- NO
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
2 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$2.37
$0.00
- NO
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?
2 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$1.85
$0.00
- NO
Will Rixi Ramona Moncada Godoy win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?
2 shares @ 61.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2025$1.80
$0.70
- NO
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela in 2025?
2 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.80
$0.00
- YES
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?
2 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$1.64
$0.00
- NO
Will CZ post 60-79 posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?
2 shares @ 99.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$1.55
$0.01
- NO
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
2 shares @ 99.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$1.52
$0.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?$1.16Jul 17, 00:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on July 11?$1.45Jul 11, 22:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on July 11?$1.41Jul 11, 22:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on July 11?$1.41Jul 10, 07:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on July 11?$1.45Jul 10, 07:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?$1.16Jul 5, 06:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? $1.07Jul 4, 09:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Apple release Homepod Mini Successor by June 30?$1.75Jul 1, 06:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? $1.07Jun 29, 03:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple release Homepod Mini Successor by June 30?$1.75Jun 29, 03:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?$1.27Jun 19, 04:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill Khamenei post 10-14 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026?$1.26Jun 16, 18:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Khamenei post 10-14 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026?$1.24Jun 14, 06:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?$1.25Jun 14, 06:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?$2.37Jun 1, 01:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill CZ post 60-79 posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?$1.54May 9, 02:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?$1.85Apr 30, 01:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hezbollah disarm by April 30?$1.21Apr 29, 08:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?$1.64Apr 28, 09:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?$1.52Apr 14, 07:51 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $5.81
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 5, 07:13 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 17, 00:31 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.