Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30?

1. 1

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 1571h with open resolution ambiguity.

2. 2

   Thin liquidity

   Only $24.9k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model owned by a Chinese company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If a Chinese AI model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.