Melodic-Omega-Fight
0x718b4828d88edef11949191417f85752c2dc1bf2
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$306.69
Total PnL
$-791.72
Realised
$-12.58
Win rate
13%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
133 shares @ 45.0¢·now 45.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$60.60
$0.67
- YES
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?
133 shares @ 29.0¢·now 42.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$55.93
$17.31
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
75 shares @ 82.0¢·now 70.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$52.89
$-8.63
- NO
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
36 shares @ 42.0¢·now 52.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$18.84
$3.77
- YES
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
73 shares @ 23.1¢·now 23.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$17.09
$0.31
- YES
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?
71 shares @ 25.0¢·now 23.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$16.43
$-1.43
- NO
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
19 shares @ 84.0¢·now 82.8¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$15.52
$-0.22
- NO
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?
17 shares @ 72.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$15.10
$3.22
- YES
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?
13 shares @ 69.4¢·now 85.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$10.69
$2.01
- YES
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
21 shares @ 50.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$10.51
$0.10
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 6, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET$0.63Aug 6, 08:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on August 5?$5.41Aug 6, 06:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 6, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET$1.07Aug 6, 05:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 5?$6.15Aug 6, 04:45 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET$5.56Aug 6, 04:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET$4.89Aug 6, 03:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on August 7?$1.88Aug 6, 01:51 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 6, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on August 7?$2.45Aug 5, 23:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET$5.03Aug 5, 23:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on August 6?$2.54Aug 5, 23:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on August 6?$2.56Aug 5, 23:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on August 6?$1.97Aug 5, 23:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on August 6?$2.79Aug 5, 23:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on August 6?$3.61Aug 5, 22:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on August 5?$5.67Aug 5, 22:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on August 6?$3.09Aug 5, 22:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on August 5?$5.75Aug 5, 22:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on August 6?$2.48Aug 5, 19:25 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET$9.41Aug 5, 19:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
32/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
13% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $2.51
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 5, 01:50 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 6, 08:04 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.