Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

1. 1

   Down 1pp over 24h

   Now 10¢; flat in the last hour.

2. 2

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 3537h with open resolution ambiguity.

3. 3

   Thin liquidity

   Only $20.2k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election. If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)