Bewitched-Auditorium
0x721a29613c653d9430532402784c8b25ad5d9295
Wallet digest
Activity score
61/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
176
Open notional
$255.00
Total PnL
$-328.64
Realised
$-249.01
Win rate
16%
99 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 176- YES
Betmoar FDV above $20M one day after launch?
49 shares @ 66.0¢·now 63.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$31.32
$-1.23
- NO
Will Waymo launch in Minneapolis, MN by December 31 2026?
29 shares @ 72.0¢·now 72.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$21.09
$0.00
- NO
Will the Republican Party win the TX-28 House seat?
21 shares @ 85.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp Nov 4, 2026$17.32
$-0.52
- NO
Will Oscar Isaac – “Beef” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actor in a limited or anthology series or movie?
34 shares @ 39.9¢·now 39.5¢·exp Sep 14, 2026$13.32
$-0.13
- YES
Will Mitchell Berman be the WI-01 Democratic nominee?
15 shares @ 87.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$12.93
$-0.07
- YES
Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026?
20 shares @ 40.0¢·now 24.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$4.80
$-3.20
- NO
Will Ana Brnabić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?
5 shares @ 69.3¢·now 89.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2028$4.25
$0.96
- NO
Will Monterrey win the 2026 Liga MX Apertura?
4 shares @ 90.0¢·now 94.2¢·exp Dec 13, 2026$3.95
$0.17
- NO
Will Sonia Backès be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?
4 shares @ 85.0¢·now 99.4¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$3.86
$0.56
- NO
Israel closes its airspace by August 15?
4 shares @ 78.0¢·now 81.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$3.52
$0.13
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Zelenskyy post 160-179 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?$0.06Jul 29, 05:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Zelenskyy post 160-179 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?$0.06Jul 29, 04:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026?$1.73Jul 28, 23:11 UTC
- TRADESELLMeta (META) Q2 average price per ad growth 12%-15%?$1.00Jul 28, 22:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Golf" or "Golfer" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?$2.78Jul 28, 21:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Stop Calling Me" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?$2.86Jul 28, 20:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?$3.00Jul 28, 18:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill gas hit $3.25 (Low) by July 31?$0.06Jul 28, 05:43 UTC
- TRADESELLBenedict Wong as Wong?$1.50Jul 28, 04:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?$6.84Jul 28, 04:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Helena Foulkes win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Democratic primary election?$0.70Jul 28, 02:48 UTC
- REWARD$3.45Jul 28, 00:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on July 27?$2.94Jul 27, 23:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Dalia Al-Aqidi be the MN-05 Republican nominee?$1.43Jul 27, 22:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $5.50 in July?$0.42Jul 27, 22:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the September interest rate announcement?$24.87Jul 27, 21:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of August 2026?$2.32Jul 27, 18:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of August 2026?$1.38Jul 27, 18:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1510 by December 31?$0.64Jul 27, 18:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of August 2026?$1.16Jul 27, 18:21 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
58/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
16% win rate over 99 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 29/100.
99 closed markets, 16% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $4.09
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 26, 22:14 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 05:01 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 99 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.