Mindless-Ballpark
0x72304c202defeb1426b3095e823735739e0cbfdc
Wallet digest
Activity score
61/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
14
Open notional
$11.55
Total PnL
$-5.24
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 14- NO
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
2 shares @ 98.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$2.05
$0.02
- NO
Will France strike Iran by March 31?
1 shares @ 99.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$1.43
$0.01
- NO
Will Trump visit Pakistan by April 30?
1 shares @ 99.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$1.42
$0.00
- NO
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.26
$0.00
- NO
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$1.12
$0.00
- NO
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by April 30?
1 shares @ 99.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$1.09
$0.01
- NO
Gemini 3.5 released by April 30?
1 shares @ 97.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.08
$0.02
- NO
Israel closes its airspace by May 8?
1 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$1.05
$0.00
- NO
Will India join the Board of Peace?
1 shares @ 99.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$1.04
$0.00
- YES
Will Trump say "Brazil" this week? (November 17 – 23)
3 shares @ 31.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$0.00
$-1.02
Recent activity
- REDEEMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$0.00Jul 24, 21:21 UTC
- REDEEMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$1.07Jul 21, 19:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C or higher on July 11?$1.24Jul 11, 16:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$1.07Jul 11, 03:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C or higher on July 11?$1.24Jul 11, 03:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on July 11?$1.09Jul 11, 03:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C or below on July 6?$1.24Jul 6, 22:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C or below on July 6?$1.24Jul 5, 08:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Ornn H200 Index be between $6.00 and $7.00 on June 30, 2026?$1.24Jul 1, 22:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$1.05Jun 30, 19:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$1.05Jun 28, 09:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Ornn H200 Index be between $6.00 and $7.00 on June 30, 2026?$1.24Jun 28, 09:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 19?$1.08Jun 19, 18:04 UTC
- REDEEMAnother GTA VI trailer released by June 15?$1.07Jun 16, 07:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 19?$1.05Jun 14, 06:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYAnother GTA VI trailer released by June 15?$1.05Jun 14, 06:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?$2.03May 30, 02:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by May 8?$1.05May 9, 03:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?$1.12Apr 30, 06:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces military support of Kurds in Iran by April 30?$1.08Apr 29, 07:47 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $4.95
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 11, 00:42 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 24, 21:21 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.