Mundane-Observation
0x72412adb7f2bbb7108ffdae0648c1973d67f92ac
Wallet digest
Activity score
79/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
15
Open notional
$73.58
Total PnL
$21.49
Realised
$-1.49
Win rate
13%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- YES
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?
32 shares @ 31.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$32.24
$22.25
- NO
Will Derek Dooley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?
6 shares @ 82.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$5.95
$1.07
- YES
Will Mike Bouchard be the Republican Nominee for MI-10?
8 shares @ 65.1¢·now 77.5¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$5.87
$0.94
- NO
Will Lawrence Kellogg advance to the general election for WA-03?
6 shares @ 83.0¢·now 94.1¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$5.69
$0.67
- NO
Will Christopher Bouchat win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?
5 shares @ 91.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$5.49
$0.49
- YES
Will the Republican Party win the AL-04 House seat?
5 shares @ 93.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$5.02
$0.03
- NO
Will Eric Vaughan advance to the general election for WA-03?
5 shares @ 89.0¢·now 96.7¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$4.89
$0.39
- YES
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
192 shares @ 1.7¢·now 1.8¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$3.37
$0.10
- YES
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
174 shares @ 1.9¢·now 1.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$2.17
$-1.13
- YES
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
203 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.52
$-1.11
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jun 1, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 31, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 30, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 29, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 28, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 27, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 26, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 25, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 24, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 23, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 22, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 21, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 20, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 19, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 18, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 17, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 16, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 15, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 14, 00:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on April 13?$10.20May 3, 09:06 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
22/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
13% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
6 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 58/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 6
- Avg trade size
- $6.65
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 14, 06:35 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 1, 00:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.