Will Lawrence Kellogg advance to the general election for WA-03?

1. 1

   Down 2pp over 24h

   Now 14¢; -0.5pp in the last hour.

2. 2

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 2410h with open resolution ambiguity.

3. 3

   Thin liquidity

   Only $15.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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The non-partisan primary election for the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives is scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026. The two candidates who receive the most votes in this primary election will qualify for the General Election. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 WA-03 congressional district primary takes place, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for the WA-03 congressional district seat, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Washington, specifically the Washington Office of the Secretary of State.