Loving-Argument
0x725bfc858b389b5500a8e0327157eef4f83e576d
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
5
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-766.97
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?
645 shares @ 65.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-419.25
- YES
Will Greece win the first Eurovision Semi-Final?
408 shares @ 29.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$0.00
$-121.38
- YES
Will Serbia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?
281 shares @ 11.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-33.11
- YES
Will Greece be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?
210 shares @ 60.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-127.71
- YES
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?
168 shares @ 39.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-65.52
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Serbia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?$4.39May 16, 22:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Serbia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?$29.99May 16, 22:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Greece be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?$104.37May 16, 19:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Greece be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?$23.81May 16, 19:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Greece win the first Eurovision Semi-Final?$0.59May 16, 17:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Greece win the first Eurovision Semi-Final?$125.03May 12, 19:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?$65.52Apr 12, 22:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?$419.25Apr 12, 22:27 UTC
- REDEEMUS forces enter Iran by April 30?$484.00Apr 12, 22:21 UTC
- TRADESELLUS forces enter Iran by March 31?$0.45Apr 1, 15:04 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?$0.00Mar 29, 02:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill Powell say "Good Morning" during Jackson Hole speech on August 22?$0.00Mar 29, 02:35 UTC
- REDEEMHouthi strike on Israel before August?$0.00Mar 29, 02:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill Powell say "Trump" during Jackson Hole speech on August 22?$0.00Mar 29, 02:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bernie Sanders say "Zohran" or "Mamdani" during his West Virginia speech on August 8?$0.00Mar 29, 02:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his AI speech on July 23?$0.00Mar 29, 02:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Biden" 5+ times during Philippines President events on July 22?$0.00Mar 29, 02:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Biden" 5+ times during Philippines President events on July 22?$0.00Mar 29, 02:35 UTC
- REDEEMUS strikes Yemen before August?$0.00Mar 29, 02:35 UTC
- REDEEMUFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev$0.00Mar 29, 02:34 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
28 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 28
- Avg trade size
- $124.74
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 18, 19:49 UTC
- Last active
- May 16, 22:09 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.