Will Greece be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?
Probability
58¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
+3.5pp
24h Vol
$67.32
Liquidity
$26.7K
Probability (last 7 days)
+4.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 494.1h
- 09:54SignalMEDIUM
Signal · Momentum up
Probability moved up 3.5pp in 24h with 0.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- 09:54SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 494h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 09:54PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 58¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the named country finishes Eurovision 2026 as one of the top 5 highest scoring candidates. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to finish as one of the top 5 highest scorers based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 16, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).