Gullible-Grassland
0x72a22d4d155079da8f50c89d4c6c03b6428e7b65
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
106
Open notional
$159.7K
Total PnL
$4.6K
Realised
$3.7K
Win rate
79%
33 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 106- NO
Trump out as President by July 31?
23456 shares @ 99.3¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$23.4K
$124.06
- NO
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
20002 shares @ 99.5¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$20.0K
$75.09
- NO
New "Stranger Things" episode released by July 31?
15622 shares @ 99.3¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$15.6K
$85.67
- NO
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?
9979 shares @ 99.3¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$10.0K
$40.11
- NO
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?
7323 shares @ 94.4¢·now 96.9¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$7.1K
$179.31
- NO
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
8000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 80.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$6.4K
$2.4K
- NO
Trump out as President before 2027?
6750 shares @ 92.1¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.2K
$28.75
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
5700 shares @ 90.1¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.2K
$78.51
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
5000 shares @ 99.3¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$5.0K
$15.51
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
5500 shares @ 74.2¢·now 79.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.4K
$291.78
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by July 31?$28.51Jul 28, 20:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$197.50Jul 28, 20:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by July 31?$133.68Jul 28, 18:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $13B by July 31?$37.30Jul 28, 18:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $13B by July 31?$18.65Jul 28, 18:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $13B by July 31?$46.58Jul 28, 18:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the highest private market valuation on July 31?$9.90Jul 28, 18:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the highest private market valuation on July 31?$39.58Jul 28, 18:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the highest private market valuation on July 31?$39.58Jul 28, 18:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the highest private market valuation on July 31?$39.58Jul 28, 18:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $180B by July 31?$78.53Jul 28, 18:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $225B by July 31?$4.99Jul 28, 18:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $190B by July 31?$0.24Jul 28, 18:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $16B by July 31?$58.28Jul 28, 18:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $16B by July 31?$65.82Jul 28, 18:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $8.5B by July 31?$105.88Jul 28, 18:10 UTC
- TRADESELLNATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$63.67Jul 28, 14:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by July 31?$372.00Jul 28, 13:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?$179.69Jul 28, 13:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-6 be released by July 31, 2026? $110.11Jul 28, 12:49 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
72/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
79% win rate over 33 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 41/100.
33 closed markets, 79% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $146.69
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 15:59 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 20:50 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 33 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.