Fortunate-Bronco
0x738f78947de2a780ad7c8c48566f88555d83fc34
Wallet digest
Activity score
67/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
19
Open notional
$0.99
Total PnL
$-52.08
Realised
$1.57
Win rate
86%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 19- NO
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
1 shares @ 98.0¢·now 98.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.99
$0.01
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on December 19?
5395 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 19, 2025$0.00
$-10.79
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on March 27?
1121 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$0.00
$-2.49
- YES
Will the price of XRP be greater than $2.10 on February 9?
1117 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 9, 2026$0.00
$-3.35
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on February 20?
1113 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 20, 2026$0.00
$-3.34
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on February 17?
1097 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 17, 2026$0.00
$-4.39
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on April 4?
1095 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 4, 2026$0.00
$-2.43
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on March 20?
1095 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 20, 2026$0.00
$-2.43
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 2?
1091 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 2, 2026$0.00
$-2.18
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on April 13?
1085 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026$0.00
$-2.41
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 7?$25.06Aug 7, 16:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 7?$25.00Aug 6, 03:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump pardon SBF by July 31?$2.31Aug 1, 06:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill Baidu have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$3.45Jul 31, 18:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on July 30?$19.04Jul 30, 16:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on July 30?$19.00Jul 29, 04:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on July 22?$19.06Jul 22, 16:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on July 22?$19.00Jul 21, 03:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin dip to $48,000 July 13-19?$6.31Jul 20, 04:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $48,000 July 13-19?$6.30Jul 14, 09:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump pardon SBF by July 31?$2.30Jul 9, 04:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Baidu have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$3.45Jul 3, 09:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?$3.30Jul 1, 06:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 28?$2.1KJun 28, 16:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 28?$2.1KJun 28, 02:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 27?$2.1KJun 27, 16:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 27?$2.0KJun 27, 01:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 26?$2.1KJun 26, 18:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 26?$2.0KJun 26, 01:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 25?$2.0KJun 25, 16:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
11/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
86% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 30
- Avg trade size
- $615.94
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 27, 01:32 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 7, 16:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.