0x73b83491380f151a7dcdd3ffdfb754e16122020d
0x73b83491380f151a7dcdd3ffdfb754e16122020d
Wallet digest
Activity score
46/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$556.99
Total PnL
$-2.2K
Realised
$-65.18
Win rate
16%
19 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
44 shares @ 69.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$43.87
$13.44
- YES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
33 shares @ 40.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$33.24
$19.82
- NO
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
35 shares @ 68.6¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$32.75
$8.73
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
33 shares @ 67.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$32.56
$10.44
- NO
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?
30 shares @ 82.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$30.46
$5.29
- NO
Iran leadership change by December 31?
30 shares @ 38.0¢·now 75.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$22.76
$11.23
- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
41 shares @ 51.0¢·now 43.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$17.91
$-3.09
- NO
Iran leadership change by April 30?
18 shares @ 65.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$17.68
$6.08
- NO
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?
16 shares @ 62.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$16.00
$6.00
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
16 shares @ 83.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$15.10
$1.84
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 19, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 18, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 17, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 16, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 15, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 9, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 8, 00:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 7, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 6, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 5, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 4, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 3, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 2, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 1, 00:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
49/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
16% win rate over 19 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
19 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 1, 00:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 00:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 19 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.