Arid-Cinema
0x73d225c851df25d73b14846a370bdeef9434f9b7
Wallet digest
Activity score
84/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$31.4K
Total PnL
$-1.6K
Realised
$447.75
Win rate
43%
23 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?
3000 shares @ 73.0¢·now 78.5¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$2.4K
$165.00
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
1500 shares @ 85.0¢·now 78.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.2K
$-97.50
- NO
Clavicular sentenced to prison?
641 shares @ 88.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$560.88
$-3.20
- NO
Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026?
600 shares @ 86.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$525.00
$9.00
- NO
Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
500 shares @ 88.0¢·now 99.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$497.25
$57.25
- NO
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 10% and 12%?
506 shares @ 86.0¢·now 81.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$412.34
$-22.82
- NO
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
400 shares @ 81.0¢·now 99.1¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$396.20
$72.20
- YES
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-01 House seat?
400 shares @ 92.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$370.00
$2.00
- NO
Will Erling Haaland be the #1 searched person on Google this year?
400 shares @ 89.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$354.00
$-2.00
- NO
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 8% and 10%?
482 shares @ 82.0¢·now 72.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$347.24
$-48.23
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill PayPal (PYPL) beat quarterly earnings?$160.00Jul 28, 13:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill Coca-Cola (KO) beat quarterly earnings?$160.00Jul 28, 13:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill Royal Caribbean (RCL) beat quarterly earnings?$160.00Jul 28, 13:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $58 Week of July 27 2026?$115.20Jul 28, 13:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $435 in July?$38.28Jul 28, 13:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill UPS (UPS) beat quarterly earnings?$200.00Jul 28, 13:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYAllstate (ALL) Q2 property-liability combined ratio <88%?$2.85Jul 28, 12:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff by 5–10%?$200.00Jul 28, 12:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.50% and 4.99%?$22.97Jul 28, 12:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.50% and 4.99%?$117.22Jul 28, 12:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?$126.00Jul 28, 11:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P Global (SPGI) beat quarterly earnings?$123.20Jul 28, 11:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Coca-Cola (KO) beat quarterly earnings?$1.18Jul 28, 10:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Coca-Cola (KO) beat quarterly earnings?$3.62Jul 28, 10:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Moon" be in the headlines this week?$30.10Jul 28, 09:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Magomed Ankalaev fight Paulo Costa next?$30.49Jul 28, 09:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Max Holloway fight Justin Gaethje next?$158.00Jul 28, 07:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill Phil Weiser win the Colorado Governor Democratic Primary by 10–15%?$300.00Jul 28, 07:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill Melat Kiros win the CO-01 Democratic primary by less than 5%?$200.00Jul 28, 07:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on July 28?$5.97Jul 28, 06:57 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
47/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
43% win rate over 23 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
30 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
23 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 30
- Avg trade size
- $38.34
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 05:26 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 13:44 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 23 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.