Barren-Garden
0x74309e4f368f9246095088c2c606a1fb6690fcc9
Wallet digest
Activity score
44/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
32
Open notional
$17.05
Total PnL
$-120.02
Realised
$3.92
Win rate
5%
22 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 32- YES
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?
5 shares @ 95.0¢·now 96.8¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$5.09
$0.09
- YES
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
6 shares @ 85.1¢·now 85.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.01
$0.01
- YES
Will Banksy create a new mural or street artwork by December 31?
6 shares @ 82.0¢·now 65.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.96
$-1.04
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
1 shares @ 85.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$1.02
$0.02
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?
1 shares @ 86.0¢·now 84.7¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$0.98
$-0.02
- UP
Charizard ex Price Up/Down on August 31?
1 shares @ 97.0¢·now 48.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$0.49
$-0.51
- YES
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
3 shares @ 40.0¢·now 18.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.46
$-0.54
- YES
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?
2 shares @ 50.0¢·now 1.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$0.03
$-0.97
- YES
Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?
56 shares @ 54.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026$0.00
$-30.00
- YES
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29?
34 shares @ 29.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYCharizard ex Price Up/Down on August 31?$1.00Aug 15, 08:13 UTC
- REDEEMUkraine strikes another vessel in the Black Sea by August 15, 2026?$5.95Aug 15, 06:00 UTC
- REDEEMITF Muttenz: Juan Estevez vs Alex Bergomi AND ITF Muttenz: Nico Hipfl vs Alessandro Hunziker$6.12Aug 13, 09:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYUkraine strikes another vessel in the Black Sea by August 15, 2026?$5.00Aug 13, 08:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYITF Muttenz: Juan Estevez vs Alex Bergomi AND ITF Muttenz: Nico Hipfl vs Alessandro Hunziker$5.00Aug 12, 07:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 13?$1.02Aug 12, 07:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?$5.01Aug 11, 17:28 UTC
- REDEEMDetroit Tigers vs. San Francisco Giants$5.68Aug 9, 23:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYDetroit Tigers vs. San Francisco Giants$5.03Aug 9, 22:38 UTC
- REDEEMUFC Fight Night: Billy Ray Goff vs. Ty Miller (Welterweight, Prelims) AND UFC Fight Night: Darren Elkins vs. Yadier del Valle (Featherweight, Prelims)$14.81Aug 9, 06:00 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET$7.04Aug 8, 11:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET$5.10Aug 8, 11:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid?$21.28Aug 8, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $66,000 August 3-9?$1.05Aug 7, 16:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid?$20.06Aug 6, 15:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYUFC Fight Night: Billy Ray Goff vs. Ty Miller (Welterweight, Prelims) AND UFC Fight Night: Darren Elkins vs. Yadier del Valle (Featherweight, Prelims)$10.00Aug 5, 07:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?$1.01Aug 4, 10:49 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET$0.00Aug 3, 05:21 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET$22.73Aug 3, 05:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET$5.27Aug 3, 05:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
47/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
5% win rate over 22 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
28 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.
22 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 28
- Avg trade size
- $4.33
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 14, 05:29 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 15, 08:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 22 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.