Vibrant-Minority-Lace
0x74aac1ecdec8af51bbe77f8f1b2f6809ae5d2c3f
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
92
Open notional
$619.76
Total PnL
$-1.2K
Realised
$168.21
Win rate
12%
33 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 92- NO
Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 3.5% and 3.9%?
100 shares @ 77.0¢·now 73.8¢·exp Jan 20, 2027$73.75
$-3.25
- NO
Will MIBR.LOS make playoffs?
100 shares @ 73.0¢·now 64.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$64.00
$-9.00
- NO
Will Andrew Yang announce a Presidential run before 2028?
100 shares @ 80.0¢·now 58.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$58.50
$-21.50
- NO
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by September 30?
83 shares @ 71.0¢·now 69.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$57.53
$-1.24
- NO
Will AfD win 28-31 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
100 shares @ 64.0¢·now 44.5¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$44.50
$-19.50
- NO
Will Kraken's valuation hit (LOW) $8B by December 31?
100 shares @ 72.0¢·now 38.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$38.00
$-34.00
- NO
Will Eva Bender win the next Hannover Region presidential election?
100 shares @ 45.0¢·now 37.5¢·exp Sep 13, 2026$37.50
$-7.50
- NO
Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $800B and $900B at the end of August 2026?
100 shares @ 59.0¢·now 37.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$37.00
$-22.00
- YES
Will Cloud9 Win LCS 2026 Summer Split
100 shares @ 29.0¢·now 17.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$17.00
$-12.00
- YES
Trump calls Nicki Minaj hot again in 2026?
100 shares @ 20.0¢·now 16.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$16.50
$-3.50
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 31, 2026?$1.00Aug 11, 19:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI’s valuation be between $800B and $900B at the end of August 2026?$59.00Aug 11, 17:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 31, 2026?$2.00Aug 11, 16:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 3.5% and 3.9%?$77.00Aug 11, 15:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by September 30?$11.88Aug 11, 15:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by September 30?$71.00Aug 11, 15:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill American Doctor win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?$16.97Aug 11, 12:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill American Doctor win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?$15.80Aug 11, 12:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 31, 2026?$2.00Aug 11, 12:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Saturn launch a token by June 30, 2027?$29.00Aug 11, 12:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Houthis successfully target shipping on August 21, 2026?$4.00Aug 11, 09:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MIBR.LOS make playoffs?$73.00Aug 11, 07:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera win the next Lima mayoral elections?$13.00Aug 11, 07:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Saturn launch a token by June 30, 2027?$34.00Aug 11, 06:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the September decision?$75.43Aug 11, 06:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the September decision?$78.00Aug 11, 06:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill ISM Services PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in August?$64.00Aug 11, 04:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?$81.00Aug 11, 04:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?$86.00Aug 11, 04:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill ISM Services PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in August?$69.00Aug 11, 03:36 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
55/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
12% win rate over 33 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
33 closed markets, 12% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $35.31
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 10, 06:35 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 11, 19:32 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 33 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.