Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 3.5% and 3.9%?
Probability
18¢
1h
+2.5pp
24h
+4.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$1.1K
Probability (last 7 days)
-0.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 5pp over 24h
Now 18¢; +2.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 6462h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 5.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 6462.3h
- 17:41SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 6462h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+3.0pp over the last 24h, now 18¢.
Biggest hourly move: -7.0pp at 2d ago (to 12¢).
Show all 20 hour-by-hour ticks
- 17:00 · +5.0pp → 18¢
- 11:00 · +3.5pp → 18¢
- 09:00 · -3.5pp → 14¢
- 08:00 · -4.0pp → 13¢
- 06:00 · -3.5pp → 14¢
- 03:00 · +5.0pp → 18¢
- 02:00 · +5.5pp → 18¢
- 00:00 · -3.5pp → 14¢
- 1d ago · -3.5pp → 14¢
- 1d ago · -4.0pp → 14¢
- 1d ago · -4.0pp → 14¢
- 1d ago · -4.5pp → 13¢
- 2d ago · -4.5pp → 13¢
- 2d ago · +6.0pp → 18¢
- 2d ago · -4.5pp → 13¢
- 2d ago · +4.0pp → 17¢
- 2d ago · -7.0pp → 12¢
- 2d ago · -4.5pp → 14¢
- 3d ago · -5.0pp → 13¢
- 3d ago · -3.5pp → 13¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report. The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 20, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to tAmbiguous wordingextracted · lowons.gov.uk
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (5.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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