Criminal-Raisin
0x74e6c1260ac5448c00eb63e1f6894ecd090c99e8
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
19
Open notional
$7.4K
Total PnL
$1.3K
Realised
$-45.40
Win rate
75%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 19- YES
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
2547 shares @ 53.1¢·now 66.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$1.7K
$341.15
- NO
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?
1250 shares @ 70.0¢·now 87.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$1.1K
$212.50
- YES
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
2000 shares @ 14.0¢·now 37.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$757.00
$477.00
- NO
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
837 shares @ 76.4¢·now 77.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$648.44
$8.73
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?
964 shares @ 51.8¢·now 66.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$636.37
$136.34
- YES
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
1000 shares @ 44.0¢·now 45.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$455.00
$15.00
- NO
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?
397 shares @ 79.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$379.13
$65.50
- NO
Bang Si-hyuk charged in 2026?
579 shares @ 36.9¢·now 45.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$263.58
$49.73
- YES
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
394 shares @ 51.1¢·now 60.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$238.58
$36.85
- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
246 shares @ 82.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$209.99
$8.60
Recent activity
- MAKER_REBATE$2.41Jul 29, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 29, 00:10 UTC
- REWARD$1.49Jul 29, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$313.22Jul 28, 23:47 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$310.72Jul 28, 23:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$34.04Jul 28, 22:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump's remarks not air?$11.51Jul 28, 22:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$320.00Jul 28, 22:32 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$158.68Jul 28, 22:30 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?$91.98Jul 28, 22:15 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?$1.61Jul 28, 22:09 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?$26.64Jul 28, 22:08 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?$89.14Jul 28, 22:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$326.49Jul 28, 14:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?$173.91Jul 28, 02:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?$19.69Jul 28, 02:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?$3.20Jul 28, 02:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$143.20Jul 28, 01:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?$3.20Jul 28, 01:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$143.00Jul 28, 01:09 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
22/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
75% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 62/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $96.27
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 25, 15:44 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.