Sick-Cycle
0x75110b2afa07a881292528a355715a0febe1582e
Wallet digest
Activity score
66/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
169
Open notional
$2.4K
Total PnL
$-1.4K
Realised
$-7.68
Win rate
50%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 169- NO
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
715 shares @ 80.5¢·now 79.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$568.81
$-7.13
- NO
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?
236 shares @ 92.9¢·now 93.8¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$221.82
$2.17
- NO
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
235 shares @ 63.9¢·now 57.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$134.01
$-16.06
- NO
Will Maluma perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?
125 shares @ 87.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$125.14
$15.64
- NO
Will Al Lawson win the Tallahassee mayoral election?
115 shares @ 84.5¢·now 99.9¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$115.24
$17.65
- YES
Will Phil Scott win the 2026 Vermont Governor Republican primary election?
109 shares @ 94.6¢·now 99.5¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$108.62
$5.38
- NO
Will Charles McCall win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?
107 shares @ 93.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$107.20
$7.45
- NO
Will Georgia use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?
111 shares @ 91.7¢·now 94.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$103.94
$2.57
- YES
Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026?
117 shares @ 77.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$101.17
$11.11
- NO
Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026?
106 shares @ 78.5¢·now 90.1¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$95.20
$12.23
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Jul 29, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 28, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 27, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 26, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 25, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 24, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 23, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 22, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 20:08 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 19, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 18, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 17, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 16, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 15, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 14, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 13, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 12, 00:17 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?$37.69Jul 11, 06:03 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 11, 00:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
29/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
3 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 3
- Avg trade size
- $3.78
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 30, 02:33 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.