Will Phil Scott win the 2026 Vermont Governor Republican primary election?
Probability
92¢
1h
-0.4pp
24h
+0.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$15.2K
Probability (last 7 days)
+1.3pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 2581.6h
- 10:23SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 2582h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 04:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.6pp
to 83¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 27.8pp
to 93¢
- 01:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 94¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 94¢
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.1pp
to 94¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 94¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.1pp
to 93¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 93¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.9pp
to 90¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.4pp
to 93¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.6pp
to 92¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 31.6pp
to 92¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.4pp
to 94¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.2pp
to 88¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.2pp
to 88¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Vermont, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Vermont Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Vermont Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Aug 11, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).