Winding-Fire
0x753fbcecbc83fd8ff5f513e10ad11e46e460d4fe
Wallet digest
Activity score
83/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
41
Open notional
$21.95
Total PnL
$-27.68
Realised
$66.63
Win rate
100%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 41- YES
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
38 shares @ 52.0¢·now 28.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$10.96
$-9.04
- YES
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?
59 shares @ 34.0¢·now 16.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.71
$-10.29
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 50 million views on week 1?
10 shares @ 13.7¢·now 7.2¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.72
$-0.65
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week 1?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.35
$-0.65
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.15
$-0.85
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.05
$-0.95
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?
30 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.01
$-0.28
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 3?
1429 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$0.00
$-13.61
- YES
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?
1040 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-2.20
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get 50 million or more views on day 3?
222 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 3, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 31°C on July 29?$1.07Jul 28, 05:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 50 million views on week 1?$1.43Jul 27, 16:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week 1?$1.00Jul 27, 11:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?$0.21Jul 26, 11:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?$0.11Jul 26, 11:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?$0.02Jul 26, 11:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?$0.11Jul 26, 10:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?$0.97Jul 25, 23:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?$0.30Jul 25, 23:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?$0.55Jul 25, 17:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?$0.02Jul 25, 17:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?$0.01Jul 25, 16:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 24?$0.54Jul 24, 11:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 24?$0.10Jul 23, 04:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 24?$0.08Jul 23, 04:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 24?$0.30Jul 23, 04:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 24?$0.20Jul 23, 04:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 24?$0.20Jul 23, 04:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 24?$0.12Jul 23, 04:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 24?$0.11Jul 23, 04:28 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
18/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
29 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 54/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 29
- Avg trade size
- $0.41
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 7, 16:27 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 05:20 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.