Scrawny-Trench
0x755e91fd86c93cec3b3932a0edfe038af03b19ae
Wallet digest
Activity score
47/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
8
Open notional
$58.82
Total PnL
$-135.49
Realised
$-2.31
Win rate
0%
3 closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Spain win on 2026-07-06?
59 shares @ 51.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$58.82
$28.82
- YES
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
623 shares @ 5.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-33.00
- YES
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
600 shares @ 5.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-33.00
- NO
US government shutdown Saturday?
545 shares @ 3.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-21.00
- YES
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?
78 shares @ 32.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-25.00
- YES
Will Russia enter Sofiivka by January 31?
77 shares @ 26.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will Trump meet with Friedrich Merz in January 2026?
34 shares @ 59.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- KENTUCKY WILDCATS
Spread: Kentucky Wildcats (-7.5)
20 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 22, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 7, 00:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spain win on 2026-07-06?$30.44Jul 6, 17:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$28.38Jul 6, 17:51 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 6, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 5, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 4, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 3, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 2, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 1, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 30, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 29, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 28, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 27, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 26, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$33.96Jun 25, 12:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$33.94Jun 25, 12:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$33.94Jun 25, 12:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bill or Hillary Clinton be held in contempt of Congress by Feb 28?$39.08Feb 7, 02:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS government shutdown Saturday?$1.00Feb 3, 01:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?$19.33Jan 30, 02:41 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
17/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 23
- Avg trade size
- $19.83
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 21, 12:32 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 7, 00:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.