Watchful-Ketchup
0x768a663f18532874ab04b974f75d7570c2424f50
Wallet digest
Activity score
80/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
54
Open notional
$18.71
Total PnL
$-60.28
Realised
$10.11
Win rate
100%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 54- YES
Will 1250 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026?
6 shares @ 40.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp Jan 10, 2027$4.95
$2.55
- YES
Will the 2026 trade deficit be less than 500B?
60 shares @ 27.2¢·now 4.5¢·exp Feb 28, 2027$2.70
$-13.65
- YES
Will Travis Scott have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?
7 shares @ 44.0¢·now 34.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.41
$-0.67
- YES
Will fewer than 950 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026?
30 shares @ 15.5¢·now 4.8¢·exp Jan 10, 2027$1.44
$-3.21
- NO
Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?
14 shares @ 26.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Sep 6, 2026$1.33
$-2.31
- YES
Will Future have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?
5 shares @ 8.0¢·now 21.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.05
$0.66
- YES
Will the 2026 trade deficit be 1.1T or more?
15 shares @ 8.0¢·now 4.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2027$0.61
$-0.59
- YES
Will 1100 to 1149 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026?
15 shares @ 8.0¢·now 3.6¢·exp Jan 10, 2027$0.55
$-0.65
- NO
Will Morgan Wallen have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?
1 shares @ 20.0¢·now 44.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.49
$0.27
- YES
Will 950 to 999 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026?
15 shares @ 5.0¢·now 2.1¢·exp Jan 10, 2027$0.32
$-0.43
Recent activity
- REDEEMQatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5$6.02Jun 13, 21:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYQatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5$5.03Jun 13, 20:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYQatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5$1.01Jun 13, 19:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Cabinet meeting?$15.00May 27, 20:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Deal" 15+ times during Cabinet meeting?$15.02May 27, 20:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "World Cup" during Cabinet meeting?$6.40May 27, 19:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 25+ times during Cabinet meeting?$6.00May 27, 14:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Deal" 15+ times during Cabinet meeting?$0.52May 27, 14:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Deal" 15+ times during Cabinet meeting?$3.98May 27, 14:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 25+ times during Cabinet meeting?$4.94May 27, 14:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Deal" 15+ times during Cabinet meeting?$6.59May 27, 13:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "World Cup" during Cabinet meeting?$3.70May 27, 13:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "World Cup" during Cabinet meeting?$5.85May 27, 13:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Deal" 15+ times during Cabinet meeting?$5.55May 27, 12:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Cabinet meeting?$6.30May 27, 12:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Pool" or "Pond" during Cabinet meeting?$6.60May 27, 12:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 25+ times during Cabinet meeting?$4.65May 27, 12:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Fauci" during Cabinet meeting?$6.60May 27, 11:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County?$30.00May 27, 00:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bernie say "Elon" or "Musk" in Maine?$0.00May 26, 12:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 16
- Avg trade size
- $4.60
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 23, 00:46 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 13, 21:37 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.