Wiggly-Photo
0x768fec713e26800eef968ea838a2e28267b2c7bd
Wallet digest
Activity score
81/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
97
Open notional
$4.8K
Total PnL
$-1.7K
Realised
$-34.83
Win rate
65%
23 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 97- NO
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
1000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 56.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$564.90
$64.90
- YES
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
1000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 43.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$435.00
$-65.00
- NO
Iran leadership change by July 31?
300 shares @ 94.4¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$298.35
$15.25
- NO
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80?
300 shares @ 68.7¢·now 92.5¢·exp Nov 19, 2026$277.50
$71.50
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
300 shares @ 72.0¢·now 76.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$229.55
$13.50
- NO
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
350 shares @ 57.0¢·now 57.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$199.46
$-0.04
- YES
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?
577 shares @ 34.3¢·now 34.3¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$197.47
$-0.29
- NO
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
200 shares @ 75.0¢·now 98.4¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$196.80
$46.80
- YES
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?
350 shares @ 35.0¢·now 55.5¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$194.40
$71.81
- NO
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
200 shares @ 90.5¢·now 96.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$193.30
$12.30
Recent activity
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?$0.17Jul 29, 05:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$199.50Jul 29, 05:56 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?$0.40Jul 29, 05:29 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?$2.80Jul 29, 05:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$0.37Jul 29, 05:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$197.39Jul 29, 05:13 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?$0.28Jul 29, 04:49 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?$1.85Jul 29, 04:47 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?$6.86Jul 29, 04:46 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?$5.00Jul 29, 04:45 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?$56.00Jul 29, 04:45 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?$10.00Jul 29, 04:45 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?$0.49Jul 29, 04:44 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 29, 00:12 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?$100.00Jul 28, 22:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in July 2026?$100.00Jul 28, 21:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?$0.61Jul 28, 08:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?$0.30Jul 28, 08:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?$0.90Jul 28, 08:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?$2.80Jul 28, 06:45 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
46/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
65% win rate over 23 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.
23 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $18.90
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 25, 22:38 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 05:57 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 23 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.